BYU has won every game it has played in 2026. It has also accomplished something a little harder: the Cougars have covered the spread in every one of them.

BYU is 4-0 straight up and 4-0 against the spread after Saturday’s 17-10 road win at TCU. Using the lines tracked by Covers, BYU entered its first four games as a 50.5-point favorite against Utah Tech, 6.5-point favorite against Arizona, 17.5-point favorite at Colorado State and 5.5-point favorite at TCU. The Cougars covered all four. (Covers.com)

That sounds like another piece of evidence that BYU continues to be underrated.

It is.

But there is another number worth watching: how much BYU is beating the spread by.

Opponent Final Spread* Cover margin Utah Tech BYU 63-7 BYU -50.5 +5.5 Arizona BYU 28-17 BYU -6.5 +4.5 Colorado State BYU 41-23 BYU -17.5 +0.5 TCU BYU 17-10 BYU -5.5 +1.5

*Using Covers’ graded lines. (Covers.com)

BYU hasn’t suddenly stopped outperforming expectations. But the gap between what the market expected and what actually happened has gotten much smaller.

That could be the first indication that Vegas is catching up.

This Didn’t Start in 2026

BYU’s success against the spread isn’t a four-game fluke.

The Cougars finished 10-4 ATS in 2025, covering 71.4% of their games. One historical database has BYU at 7-5 in its graded games in 2024 after going just 5-7 in 2023. (Covers.com)

Combine 2024, 2025 and the first four games of 2026 and BYU is 21-9 against the spread — a 70% cover rate in those recorded games.

That is a pretty remarkable stretch because the point spread is specifically designed to eliminate exactly this kind of advantage. Winning games doesn’t necessarily mean covering. Once a team repeatedly performs better than expected, sportsbooks can simply move the number.

BYU appears to be reaching that stage now.

Look at What Happened at TCU

TCU may be the clearest example.

Before the season, an SP+-based projection estimated BYU would be about a three-point favorite in Fort Worth. By game week, that number had roughly doubled. DraftKings had BYU -6.5 shortly before kickoff, while other market snapshots ranged around -5.5 to -6. (SI)

BYU still covered.

Barely.

The Cougars won 17-10 despite producing only 216 yards of offense and losing LJ Martin early to an ankle injury. The defense held TCU to 259 yards and helped BYU survive a game that looked nothing like the offensive performances that produced 63, 28 and 41 points in the first three games. (Vanquish The Foe)

That may actually tell us more than another 40-point performance would have.

The market substantially upgraded BYU from the preseason projection, and BYU still managed to finish just beyond the number.

Iowa State Shows How Much Things Have Changed

Now look at Iowa State.

A preseason SP+ projection estimated BYU would be around a 17-point favorite against the Cyclones. The current opening number is BYU -14.5. (SI)

That is a completely different situation than BYU faced early last season, when the Cougars were repeatedly trying to prove they belonged with teams the market viewed as roughly equal or better.

BYU is now expected to beat a Big 12 opponent by two touchdowns.

Blue Chip Analytics currently rates BYU at +14.0 on a neutral field and Iowa State at +7.0. BYU is No. 18 nationally in that particular power rating despite being No. 8 in the AP poll. (Blue Chip Analytics)

So there is an interesting split developing: the polls love BYU, the betting market is giving BYU substantial respect, but at least some computer systems remain more cautious.

Notre Dame Will Flip the Test

The following week will tell us even more.

BYU will host No. 3 Notre Dame on October 17, and an early market has Notre Dame around a 10-point favorite. The line originally opened around Notre Dame -11.5 before moving toward the Cougars. (Vegas Insider)

Blue Chip’s model comes almost exactly to the same conclusion, projecting Notre Dame by 9.8 after accounting for team strength, BYU’s home field, travel and elevation. (Blue Chip Analytics)

That means BYU probably won’t enter that game as the team the market is overestimating.

It gets to be the underdog again.

And recent history suggests that may be where Kalani Sitake’s teams have been most dangerous.

The Rest of the Schedule Gets Interesting

Current power ratings still see BYU as the stronger team in most of its remaining Big 12 games. Blue Chip’s neutral-field ratings have BYU ahead of UCF, Arizona State, Baylor, Kansas and Cincinnati, while Utah currently rates significantly higher. (Blue Chip Analytics)

There are already some fascinating early numbers. BYU is around -14.5 against Iowa State, +10 against Notre Dame and an early lookahead had the Cougars around +3 at Utah. (Blue Chip Analytics)

The Utah number is especially interesting. Blue Chip’s underlying ratings currently make Utah roughly seven points better on a neutral field and about a 10-point favorite after adding home-field advantage. The early market number of Utah -3 is dramatically more favorable to BYU. (Blue Chip Analytics)

That is exactly the kind of disagreement worth monitoring as November approaches.

So Is BYU Still Undervalued?

Probably — but not by as much as it was.

BYU has spent much of the past two seasons forcing both computer models and betting markets to reevaluate the program. A 10-4 ATS season in 2025 followed by a 4-0 start in 2026 isn’t something that can be dismissed as one strange September.

At the same time, there is a warning hidden inside BYU’s perfect record.

The Cougars beat their first two 2026 spreads by a combined 10 points. They beat the next two by only two points using Covers’ graded numbers.

The market is moving.

That’s the fascinating part of BYU’s 4-0 ATS start. The question isn’t really whether the Cougars have been undervalued.

They clearly have been.

The question now is how much longer it lasts.