BYU Sports Nation Prediction Scorecard: Three Weeks In, The Top-10 Picks Are Already Here

Spencer Linton and Jarom Jordan predicted BYU would live near the top 10, compete for another trip to Arlington and field another strong defense. Three games into the season, those predictions are starting to look remarkably familiar.** Three games still represent only one-quarter of a regular season, but BYU Sports Nation's preseason predictions are becoming increasingly difficult to dismiss as August optimism.

BYU followed victories over Utah Tech and Arizona with a 41-23 road win at Colorado State, moving to 3-0 overall and 1-0 in Big 12 play. More importantly for this prediction tracker, voters moved the Cougars to No. 9 in both the AP Top 25 and Coaches Poll. Spencer Linton predicted BYU would debut around No. 9 in the College Football Playoff rankings; three games into September, BYU is already sitting on that exact number in both major polls.

As always, the original probabilities remain frozen. We are not changing the preseason odds to fit what has happened; we are simply tracking whether each prediction is moving toward or away from reality.

Prediction scorecard after Week 3

Prediction Scorecard After Week 3

Reach Big 12 Championship — Both Original probability: 56% Week 3: BYU is 3-0 overall and 1-0 in Big 12 play. Status: 🟢 On track Face Texas Tech in Arlington — Both Original probability: 31% Week 3: BYU is ranked No. 9 and Texas Tech No. 11 in the AP Poll. Status: 🟢 Trending up

First CFP ranking around No. 9 — Spencer Original probability: 46% Week 3: BYU is already No. 9 in both the AP and Coaches polls. Status: 🟢 Exactly on pace

First CFP ranking around No. 10 — Jarom Original probability: 49% Week 3: BYU is No. 9 in both major polls. Status: 🟢 Ahead of pace

Finish around No. 11 / CFP range — Both Original probability: 45% Week 3: BYU has climbed to No. 9 in the AP Poll. Status: 🟢 Ahead of pace Defense allows 21 PPG — Spencer Original probability: 74% Week 3: BYU is allowing 15.7 points per game. Status: 🟢 Well ahead

Defense allows 22 PPG — Jarom Original probability: 62% Week 3: BYU is allowing 15.7 points per game. Status: 🟢 Well ahead Dunn makes 17 field goals — Spencer Original probability: 61% Week 3: Dunn is 2-for-3 after making two field goals against Colorado State. Status: 🟡 Behind, but improving

Dunn makes 20 field goals — Jarom Original probability: 36% Week 3: Dunn is 2-for-3 through three games. Status: 🔴 Behind pace Longest field goal: 52 yards — Spencer Original probability: 41% Week 3: Dunn's season long is now 44 yards. Status: 🟡 Still open Longest field goal: 51 yards — Jarom Original probability: 45% Week 3: Dunn's season long is 44 yards. Status: 🟡 Still open

Longest punt: 62 yards — Spencer Original probability: 58% Week 3: Season long remains 54 yards. Status: 🟡 Still open Longest punt: 64 yards — Jarom Original probability: 55% Week 3: Season long remains 54 yards. Status: 🟡 Still open Blocked kicks: 1 — Spencer Original probability: 63% Week 3: BYU has 0 blocked kicks. Status: 🟡 Still open

Blocked kicks: 2 — Jarom Original probability: 38% Week 3: BYU has 0 blocked kicks. Status: 🟡 Still open One return touchdown — Both Original probability: 58% Week 3: Cannon DeVries already delivered the return touchdown against Utah Tech. Status: ✅ Accomplished Return touchdown by Legend Glasker — Both Original probability: 24% Week 3: Glasker has not scored a return touchdown yet. Status: 🟡 Still possible

The top-10 prediction has arrived early

This is easily the biggest development on the board. Spencer predicted BYU would appear around No. 9 when the College Football Playoff rankings debuted, while Jarom settled around No. 10. Those rankings are still weeks away, and the CFP committee obviously will not simply copy the AP or Coaches Poll, but BYU entering its bye week at No. 9 in both polls puts the Cougars exactly where the hosts believed they could eventually land.

The climb has happened quickly. BYU entered the season tied for No. 14 in the AP poll, slipped to No. 15 after beating Utah Tech, jumped to No. 11 after defeating Arizona and then climbed another two spots following the Colorado State win. Instead of needing October victories to climb into the neighborhood Spencer and Jarom projected, BYU has reached it before September is finished. That does not make either prediction a winner yet. It does make the path much simpler: stay there.

Arlington prediction keeps getting stronger

The prediction that BYU and Texas Tech would meet in the Big 12 Championship Game was always one of the boldest on the sheet. Three weeks into the season, however, neither team has done anything to weaken it.

BYU is 3-0 and ranked No. 9 in the AP poll. Texas Tech is also 3-0 after surviving No. 22 Houston 28-26 and sits No. 11 in the AP poll and No. 10 in the Coaches Poll. BYU and Texas Tech are currently the conference's two highest-ranked teams nationally, which is almost exactly what Spencer and Jarom needed to see for this prediction to remain viable.

There is obviously a mountain of conference football remaining. BYU has played only one Big 12 game, while Texas Tech has only begun its conference schedule as well. But when we assigned just a 31% preseason probability to this exact matchup occurring in Arlington, part of the skepticism was whether both programs could remain among the conference's elite teams simultaneously. So far, they have.

The defense gave up 23 — and still gained cushion

Colorado State scored more points against BYU than either Utah Tech or Arizona, pushing the Cougars' season scoring-defense average from 12.0 to 15.7 points per game. That sounds like movement in the wrong direction until you remember what Spencer and Jarom actually predicted: 21 and 22 points per game.

BYU has surrendered only 47 total points through three games while holding opponents to 271 yards per game. Colorado State finished with 302 yards, and BYU had built a 38-7 lead through three quarters before the Rams scored 16 points in the fourth.

The math remains extremely favorable. Spencer's 21-point prediction would equal 252 points over a 12-game regular season, meaning BYU can allow 205 points over the remaining nine games — 22.8 per game — and still land directly on his projection. Jarom's 22-point prediction gives the defense even more room: BYU could surrender approximately 24.1 points per game the rest of the regular season and finish at his number. That is a substantial cushion heading into the more difficult portion of the schedule.

Dunn finally gets the field-goal predictions moving

The prediction in the most trouble after Week 2 finally showed some life at Colorado State. Matthias Dunn entered the game 0-for-1 on field goals this season. He then connected from 44 yards in the second quarter and 26 yards in the fourth, improving to 2-for-3 on the season.

Spencer predicted 17 made field goals, so Dunn now needs 15 over BYU's final nine regular-season games, or 1.67 per game. Interestingly, that required pace is now slightly better than it was a week ago, when he needed all 17 over the final 10 games. Jarom's 20-field-goal prediction remains much more difficult, requiring 18 makes in nine games — exactly two per game. The longest-field-goal predictions also remain alive. Dunn's season long is now 44 yards, leaving Spencer's 52 and Jarom's 51 one big kick away from being settled.

Special teams remain mostly unchanged

Fuller Shurtz had only one punt against Colorado State, a 53-yarder, so his season long remains 54. Spencer needs a 62-yard punt and Jarom needs 64, but unlike cumulative statistics, those predictions can change instantly with one favorable bounce or one booming kick.

BYU still has not blocked a kick, leaving Spencer's prediction of one and Jarom's prediction of two unresolved. The return-touchdown prediction, meanwhile, remains safely checked off thanks to Cannon DeVries' 100-yard kickoff return against Utah Tech.

Legend Glasker's version of that prediction remains open, although his Week 3 performance reinforced why both hosts were so bullish on him. The freshman produced 131 receiving yards on five catches and added a rushing touchdown against Colorado State, earning Big 12 Freshman of the Week honors. He has not delivered the predicted return touchdown, but his explosiveness has hardly been the problem.

Three weeks in, the bold predictions don't look very bold

After Week 1, most of these predictions were simply alive. After Arizona, some began gaining credibility. After Colorado State, several are moving from plausible toward legitimately on schedule.

BYU is 3-0, ranked No. 9 in both national polls, averaging 44 points while allowing 15.7, and sitting alongside undefeated Texas Tech near the top of the Big 12's national profile. Spencer's No. 9 prediction has essentially appeared on the scoreboard weeks before the CFP committee releases its first ranking, while Jarom's No. 10 projection is sitting only one spot away.

There are still obvious misses developing. Twenty field goals remains a difficult climb, neither punting prediction has moved beyond 54 yards, BYU has yet to block a kick and Glasker has not scored the specific return touchdown both hosts predicted. But the predictions that actually define BYU's season — Arlington, the top 10, the CFP and the defense — are doing considerably better. Three weeks in, Spencer and Jarom's biggest problem might be that some of their boldest predictions are arriving earlier than expected.