BYU Sports Nation Prediction Scorecard: Two Weeks In, Which Picks Are Holding Up?

Two games do not make a season, but they are enough to begin testing preseason predictions. BYU followed a 63-7 win over Utah Tech with a much more meaningful 28-17 victory over Arizona. The Cougars are 2-0 overall, 1-0 in Big 12 play and climbed from No. 15 to No. 11 in the AP poll on Sunday. Texas Tech remained No. 13, making BYU and the Red Raiders the two highest-ranked Big 12 teams in the current AP Top 25.

For this tracker, the original probabilities stay frozen. The point is not to change our forecast every Sunday, but to see whether Spencer and Jarom's predictions are moving toward or away from reality.

Prediction scorecard after Week 2 Prediction Host Original probability Week 1 Week 2 Score now Reach Big 12 Championship Both 56% 1-0 2-0, 1-0 Big 12 🟢 On track Face Texas Tech in Arlington Both 31% Both unbeaten BYU #11, Tech #13 🟢 Trending up First CFP ranking around #9 Spencer 46% BYU #15 AP BYU #11 AP 🟢 Ahead of pace First CFP ranking around #10 Jarom 49% BYU #15 AP BYU #11 AP 🟢 Ahead of pace Finish around #11 / CFP range Both 45% Alive BYU already #11 AP 🟢 Ahead of pace Defense allows 21 PPG Spencer 74% 7.0 PPG 12.0 PPG 🟢 Well ahead Defense allows 22 PPG Jarom 62% 7.0 PPG 12.0 PPG 🟢 Well ahead Dunn makes 17 FGs Spencer 61% 0-for-1 0-for-1 🔴 Behind pace Dunn makes 20 FGs Jarom 36% 0-for-1 0-for-1 🔴 Well behind Longest FG: 52 yards Spencer 41% Missed from 47 No attempt 🟡 Still open Longest FG: 51 yards Jarom 45% Missed from 47 No attempt 🟡 Still open Longest punt: 62 yards Spencer 58% 54 yards 53 yards 🟡 Still open Longest punt: 64 yards Jarom 55% 54 yards 53 yards 🟡 Still open Blocked kicks: 1 Spencer 63% 0 0 🟡 Still open Blocked kicks: 2 Jarom 38% 0 0 🟡 Still open One return TD Both 58% Cannon DeVries TD Still 1 ✅ Accomplished Return TD by Legend Glasker Both 24% No No 🟡 Still possible The big predictions: Arlington and the CFP The Utah Tech game told us very little about whether BYU can return to Arlington. Arizona did.

BYU trailed 17-14 at halftime, then shut Arizona out over the final two quarters to win 28-17. The Wildcats finished with 327 yards, and BYU held them to minus-2 rushing yards after halftime. That moved the Cougars to 1-0 in league play and gave the Arlington prediction its first meaningful piece of evidence.

The Texas Tech portion is also moving in the right direction. BYU and Texas Tech are currently No. 11 and No. 13 in the AP poll, respectively, although rankings obviously do not determine who reaches the Big 12 Championship Game. Still, Spencer and Jarom's choice of those two teams looks more reasonable now than it did before kickoff.

Their CFP predictions may be the biggest mover after Week 2. Spencer predicted BYU would debut around No. 9 in the CFP rankings, while Jarom chose No. 10. BYU is already No. 11 in the AP poll after beginning the season tied for No. 14, dropping to No. 15 after Utah Tech and then jumping four places following the Arizona win. The AP poll is not the CFP committee, but BYU no longer needs a dramatic climb to reach the neighborhood both hosts predicted.

The same caution applies to their shared prediction that BYU finishes around No. 11. The Cougars happen to occupy that exact AP ranking today, but the prediction will not be judged until the end of the regular season. Offense: doing enough to support the bigger predictions

Spencer and Jarom did not attach many specific offensive totals to their forecast, so the offense is best judged by whether it supports their championship and CFP expectations. So far, it has.

BYU scored 63 against Utah Tech, then produced 28 against Arizona without committing a turnover. Bear Bachmeier threw for 217 yards and three touchdowns against the Wildcats while adding a rushing score, and LJ Martin ran for 98 yards. BYU finished with 365 total yards against Arizona despite possessing the ball for only 26:19.

Legend Glasker remains an interesting side story. He scored three touchdowns against Utah Tech and then produced 74 receiving yards against Arizona, including a 61-yard catch. Spencer and Jarom clearly identified the freshman as an explosive player; they simply have not been right yet about where his special-teams touchdown will come from. Defense: both hosts are well ahead of pace

This is where the prediction sheet looks strongest. Spencer predicted 21 points allowed per game, while Jarom chose 22. BYU has allowed 24 points through two games, an average of 12.0 per game.

After Utah Tech scored seven, Arizona provided a far better test. The Wildcats scored 17 before halftime but none afterward, and BYU increased its pressure as the game went on, including consecutive fourth-quarter sacks of Noah Fifita.

The math gives both hosts a substantial cushion. To finish at Spencer's 21-point average over a 12-game regular season, BYU can allow 22.8 points per game over its final 10. To reach Jarom's 22-point prediction, that number rises to 24.0 per game. The schedule will become much more difficult, so nobody should expect the current 12.0 average to remain there. Still, after two weeks, both defensive forecasts are comfortably on track.

Special teams: one hit, one concern Spencer and Jarom already have their first accomplished prediction. Both said BYU would score a special-teams return touchdown, and Cannon DeVries delivered one immediately against Utah Tech with a 100-yard kickoff return to open the second half. BYU later confirmed DeVries as the Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Week.

The only missing piece is the player. Both picked Glasker to score the return touchdown. He has not done so, but that prediction remains technically alive if he gets one later in the season. The field-goal totals are in much worse shape. Matthias Dunn missed from 47 yards against Utah Tech and did not attempt a field goal against Arizona, leaving him 0-for-1 through two games.

Spencer's prediction of 17 makes now requires 17 field goals over the final 10 regular-season games, or 1.7 per game. Jarom's prediction of 20 requires exactly two per game the rest of the way. Those totals are not impossible, but BYU has been finishing drives with touchdowns rather than generating field-goal opportunities.

The punting predictions remain wide open. Shurtz had a 54-yard punt against Utah Tech and a Week 2 long of 53 against Arizona, so his season best remains 54 yards. Spencer needs 62 and Jarom 64, and either prediction can be settled with one kick. Neither blocked-kick prediction has moved. BYU has zero, leaving Spencer needing one and Jarom two.

Two weeks in, the optimism is holding up The most important change from Week 1 to Week 2 is not that another prediction officially came true. It is that BYU gave the larger forecasts some credibility against a Big 12 opponent.

The Cougars are 2-0, ranked No. 11, allowing 12 points per game and already have the return touchdown Spencer and Jarom predicted. Their championship and CFP forecasts remain unsettled, but they are moving in the right direction. The one obvious trouble spot is field goals. Everything else is either on schedule or still very much alive. After two weeks, Spencer and Jarom's preseason optimism looks less like wishful thinking and more like a set of predictions worth tracking.