FTC Big 12 Power Rankings: BYU Holds No. 1 While Week 4 Scrambles the Conference

Big 12 Power Rankings: Week 4 Shakes Up the Conference

Week 4 finally gave the Big 12 some separation.

Utah went into Ames and handled Iowa State. Oklahoma State exploded for 609 yards at West Virginia. Cincinnati knocked off previously unbeaten Kansas State. UCF forced four turnovers against TCU, while Arizona went on the road and improved to 3-1.

BYU did none of those things.

The Cougars were sitting at home on their bye week, yet their position at the top of the Feed the Cougar Big 12 Power Rankings still looks pretty good.

These rankings aren’t designed to duplicate the standings or simply sort teams by record. The goal is to measure how well each team has actually performed relative to the competition it has faced. That matters in a conference where 4-0 Cincinnati, 3-1 Oklahoma State and 2-2 Iowa State have played very different schedules.

So instead of starting at the top, we’re counting down.

16. Kansas — 1-2

Kansas didn’t play Saturday, and there wasn’t enough elsewhere on the résumé to move the Jayhawks out of the bottom spot.

The Jayhawks opened with a win but have since lost consecutive games, including a 24-17 Big 12 loss to Arizona State. At this point, nearly everyone above Kansas has either accumulated more wins, faced stronger competition or produced a more significant performance.

15. Colorado — 2-2

Colorado has now lost consecutive games, and offensive production remains the concern.

The Buffaloes actually outgained Baylor 363-337 Saturday but managed only 13 points in a 23-13 loss. Nine penalties for 82 yards also repeatedly made life more difficult. (University of Colorado Athletics)

There are enough pieces here to climb. Colorado simply hasn’t turned enough of its production into points.

14. TCU — 2-2

TCU might be better than No. 14.

At some point, however, results have to matter.

The Horned Frogs outgained UCF 343-266 Saturday and still lost 21-13. Four turnovers were the primary culprit, and TCU generated only 33 rushing yards.

That’s particularly interesting for BYU because TCU is next. The Horned Frogs get an immediate opportunity to show that their underlying numbers are more representative than their 2-2 record.

13. UCF — 3-1

UCF deserves credit for beating TCU 21-13.

The Knights were outgained by 77 yards but forced four TCU turnovers, while quarterback Keyone Jenkins completed an extraordinary 19 of 20 passes.

That’s why UCF moves ahead of TCU, but it’s also why the Knights aren’t moving dramatically higher. Winning the turnover battle 4-2 can cover up a lot of deficiencies.

The result is impressive. The underlying performance deserves another week of evidence.

12. Baylor — 3-1

Baylor beat Colorado 23-13, but it wasn’t the type of victory that demands a major rankings jump.

Colorado actually outgained Baylor 363-337, while the Bears averaged only 4.6 yards per play. Baylor did enough when it mattered, scoring the final 10 points after Colorado tied the game in the fourth quarter. (Big 12 Conference)

That’s a useful conference victory.

It isn’t yet evidence that Baylor belongs with the Big 12’s top group.

11. Arizona State — 2-1

Arizona State was idle, leaving the Sun Devils largely where they were.

Their 24-17 conference victory over Kansas gives them something several teams around them don’t have, but the 48-20 loss to Texas A&M remains difficult to ignore.

With several teams around ASU adding meaningful results Saturday, standing still effectively meant losing ground.

10. Kansas State — 3-1

Kansas State finally stumbled.

The Wildcats gained 447 yards against Cincinnati but allowed 436 on only 51 Bearcat plays. That’s 8.5 yards allowed per snap, an enormous efficiency number that explains how Cincinnati won despite running 29 fewer offensive plays.

The loss doesn’t destroy Kansas State’s résumé.

It does raise a major question about whether the Wildcats can consistently prevent explosive offense.

9. Iowa State — 2-2

This is where the difference between standings and power rankings becomes important.

Iowa State is 2-2. The Cyclones also just played one of the strongest teams in the conference and previously faced Iowa.

Utah beat Iowa State 31-17 Saturday, but the Cyclones aren’t being ranked ninth because losing is somehow impressive. They’re ninth because opponent quality matters when comparing their résumé with teams that have accumulated wins against significantly weaker competition.

At some point Iowa State needs another meaningful victory.

For now, the schedule keeps the Cyclones from falling farther.

8. West Virginia — 3-1

TOO HIGH?

This might be the most vulnerable ranking on the board.

West Virginia’s résumé includes a 38-27 road victory over Virginia, which keeps the Mountaineers inside the top half. But Saturday exposed some serious problems.

Reason No. 1: Oklahoma State averaged 9.0 yards per play.

The Cowboys produced 609 yards on 68 plays. That’s not simply losing a competitive conference game. That’s a defense getting repeatedly gashed.

Reason No. 2: WVU couldn’t prevent explosive plays.

Oklahoma State generated 12 plays of at least 20 yards, including 10 through the air.

Reason No. 3: The game got worse as it progressed.

West Virginia led 14-3 in the second quarter. Oklahoma State then outscored the Mountaineers 38-10 the rest of the way, turning what initially looked competitive into a 41-24 statement.

West Virginia’s previous work keeps it eighth.

But No. 8 is now on extremely shaky ground.

7. Arizona — 3-1

Arizona is becoming one of the most interesting teams in these rankings — particularly from BYU’s perspective.

The Wildcats’ only loss is 28-17 at BYU. Since then, Arizona has continued winning, including Saturday’s 34-24 road victory over Washington State.

Arizona produced 447 yards in Pullman, while Noah Fifita threw for 297 yards and four touchdowns.

That’s important on two levels.

Arizona is building its own argument to move higher, while simultaneously making BYU’s best victory increasingly valuable.

6. Houston — 3-1

Houston might own the most respectable loss in the Big 12.

The Cougars’ only defeat is 28-26 at Texas Tech, a game that came down to a failed two-point conversion. Texas Tech is now 4-0.

Houston responded Saturday by traveling to Georgia Southern and winning 42-28. The Cougars generated 441 yards, rushed for 202 and averaged 7.0 yards per play.

Conner Weigman was particularly efficient: 17-of-22 passing for 239 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions.

Houston is technically a one-loss team without a conference victory.

Its performance profile looks much better than that description suggests.

5. Cincinnati — 4-0

NOT HIGH ENOUGH?

Maybe we waited too long to believe Cincinnati.

The Bearcats entered Saturday undefeated but lacking the résumé needed to justify placement among the Big 12’s leaders. Then Kansas State came to Nippert Stadium.

Cincinnati won 31-26.

Now the statistical argument gets interesting.

Reason No. 1: Cincinnati is 4-0.

The Bearcats aren’t merely beating bad teams anymore. Kansas State entered Saturday undefeated.

Reason No. 2: Cincinnati averaged 8.5 yards per play.

The Bearcats generated 436 yards on only 51 plays. That’s explosive offensive efficiency, not empty yardage accumulated through volume.

Reason No. 3: Cincinnati ran for 271 yards.

Cole Tabb and Gi’Bran Payne combined for 250 rushing yards on 27 attempts — 9.3 yards per carry. Tabb alone rushed for 124 yards and three touchdowns on 11 carries.

Cincinnati sits fifth because the four teams ahead of it currently have stronger overall performance cases.

But the Bearcats have officially entered the conversation.

4. Oklahoma State — 3-1

No team makes these rankings harder than Oklahoma State.

The Tulsa loss is still there. It can’t simply be erased because everything afterward looks good.

But what Oklahoma State is doing around that loss is becoming impossible to ignore.

Saturday might have been the Cowboys’ strongest performance yet.

Oklahoma State went into Morgantown and beat previously undefeated West Virginia 41-24 while producing 609 yards and averaging 9.0 yards per play.

Drew Mestemaker threw for 389 yards and three touchdowns. Caleb Hawkins rushed for 180 yards. Wyatt Young produced 192 receiving yards.

And Oklahoma State did it on the road.

The résumé has a giant blemish.

The ceiling looks like one of the highest in the conference.

3. Texas Tech — 4-0

Texas Tech remains one of the easiest teams to justify near the top.

The Red Raiders are undefeated and already own a significant conference victory over Houston, beating the Cougars 28-26. They followed that performance by crushing Sam Houston 49-14 Saturday. Texas Tech entered the weekend 3-0 after wins over Abilene Christian, Oregon State and Houston. (Big 12 Conference)

There was one issue Saturday: turnovers.

Texas Tech committed four of them, including three interceptions from Will Hammond. Against Sam Houston, the Red Raiders were good enough to overcome those mistakes comfortably.

Against the best teams in the Big 12, four turnovers could completely change the result.

Still, 4-0 is 4-0, and Texas Tech owns one of the conference’s better victories.

2. Utah — 4-0

There is a legitimate argument that Utah should be No. 1.

The Utes entered Saturday having outscored Idaho, Arkansas and Utah State 142-24, including a 33-0 shutout of Utah State. (Big 12 Conference)

The unanswered question was how that dominance would translate against better competition.

We got an answer in Ames.

Utah beat Iowa State 31-17, producing 411 yards at 6.9 yards per play while committing zero turnovers. Wayshawn Parker rushed for 174 yards, and Utah built a 24-3 halftime advantage.

That gives the Utes something their résumé had been missing: a meaningful road victory.

The gap between No. 2 and No. 1 is extremely small.

Which brings us to BYU.

1. BYU — 3-0

JUST RIGHT?

BYU didn’t play Saturday.

Utah won at Iowa State. Texas Tech improved to 4-0. Cincinnati improved to 4-0. Oklahoma State demolished West Virginia on the road.

So why leave BYU at No. 1?

Three numbers help explain the decision.

Reason No. 1: BYU’s offensive efficiency has been exceptional.

BYU entered the bye having beaten Utah Tech 63-7, Arizona 28-17 and Colorado State 41-23. That’s a 132-47 scoring advantage through three games. (Big 12 Conference)

Against Colorado State, BYU produced 559 yards on only 58 plays — 9.6 yards per play.

That’s not merely accumulating yardage. That’s explosive efficiency.

Reason No. 2: BYU has dominated the line of scrimmage.

Against Colorado State, BYU rushed for 332 yards while allowing only 82.

That’s a 250-yard rushing advantage in a road game.

Reason No. 3: Arizona keeps making BYU’s résumé better.

BYU beat Arizona 28-17. The Wildcats are now 3-1, with BYU responsible for their only loss, after Arizona went to Pullman Saturday and beat Washington State 34-24. The current Big 12 standings confirm Arizona at 3-1 and BYU at 3-0 following the weekend. (Yahoo Sports)

That’s why BYU survives the bye at No. 1.

Utah has an excellent argument after winning in Ames. Texas Tech is undefeated and owns the Houston victory. Oklahoma State might have the highest offensive ceiling in the conference. Cincinnati just produced the result it needed to become a legitimate contender.

But these aren’t standings.

They’re a snapshot of performance relative to competition.

And four weeks into the season, the countdown still ends with BYU.

Feed the Cougar Big 12 Power Rankings

16. Kansas 15. Colorado 14. TCU 13. UCF 12. Baylor 11. Arizona State 10. Kansas State 9. Iowa State 8. West Virginia 7. Arizona 6. Houston 5. Cincinnati 4. Oklahoma State 3. Texas Tech 2. Utah 1. BYU