BYU @ Colorado State: Where Colorado State Can Hurt BYU — and Where the Rams Could Get Exposed

The Rams have been explosive, aggressive and remarkably effective at turning mistakes into scoring opportunities. They are averaging 46.5 points and 537 yards per game, have produced 7.9 yards per offensive play, and quarterback Hauss Hejny has thrown nine touchdown passes against only one interception. Colorado State has also forced eight turnovers through two games. Those are legitimate ways to make a favored team uncomfortable.

The problem for CSU is that several of BYU’s strongest traits directly attack the weakest portions of the Rams’ early résumé. Colorado State has allowed opponents to average 4.8 yards per rush, surrendered 442 yards to Southern Utah and now faces a BYU offense that has not committed a turnover all season. The matchup is less about whether Colorado State is “good” or “bad” and more about which version of the game the Rams can create.

WHERE COLORADO STATE CAN EXCEL: Explosive plays

Colorado State’s best chance to make BYU uncomfortable is to turn the game into a series of short, violent scoring bursts. Hejny has completed 65.1% of his passes for 539 yards, nine touchdowns and one interception. The Rams as a team are averaging 312 passing yards per game and 8.8 yards per attempt. Against Southern Utah, CSU generated 678 yards and 13 explosive plays, including nine through the air. Hejny hit touchdown passes of 68, 38 and 33 yards, while Mel Brown ripped off runs of 80 and 73 yards.

That matters because Arizona demonstrated that BYU can be moved on early. The Wildcats accumulated 240 yards in the first half last Saturday and went to halftime leading 17-14. Noah Fifita completed passes underneath and created additional problems with his legs.

Colorado State cannot expect to methodically grind BYU down for four quarters. The better strategy is to create isolation matchups, use formation variety and make BYU’s safeties defend the entire field. The Rams have already shown the ability to score without needing 10- or 12-play drives.

Hejny’s mobility adds another variable. Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita rushed for 38 yards and a touchdown against BYU, while Hejny broke a 75-yard touchdown run against Southern Utah. If BYU’s defensive front becomes too aggressive chasing sacks, quarterback movement could be one of CSU’s most productive counters.

WHERE COLORADO STATE CAN EXCEL: Creating chaos

The most impressive number on Colorado State’s early stat sheet might not be 58 points or 678 yards. It is eight takeaways. CSU has intercepted five passes and recovered three fumbles while committing only one turnover itself. That gives the Rams a plus-seven turnover margin through two games. Wyoming committed four turnovers in the opener, including three interceptions, and Southern Utah followed with four more giveaways.

That ability to steal possessions is the clearest route to an upset. A turnover does more than keep BYU off the scoreboard. It can prevent Colorado State’s defense from having to defend an 80-yard field while giving Hejny and the offense a short field against one of the better defenses CSU will see all season.

There is just one problem. BYU has yet to turn the football over. The Cougars committed zero turnovers against Utah Tech and zero again against Arizona. Through two games, BYU has forced five turnovers while giving away none. Colorado State is therefore walking directly into a strength-on-strength matchup: a defense that has survived partly by stealing possessions against an offense that has refused to give them away.

If CSU forces two or three turnovers, the complexion of this game changes dramatically. If BYU finishes with zero again, one of Colorado State’s biggest advantages through two games effectively disappears.

WHERE COLORADO STATE WILL STRUGGLE: Stopping BYU on the ground

This is the matchup that should concern Colorado State most. The Rams are allowing 174.5 rushing yards per game and 4.8 yards per carry. Southern Utah ran for 206 yards at 5.3 yards per attempt, including 144 yards from Floyd Chalk.

Now replace Southern Utah’s rushing attack with LJ Martin, Bear Bachmeier and BYU’s offensive line. BYU rushed for 308 yards against Utah Tech and another 148 against Arizona, giving the Cougars 456 rushing yards through two games — 228 per game at exactly 6.0 yards per carry. Martin had 98 yards on 20 carries against Arizona, while Bachmeier added 37 yards and repeatedly extended drives with designed runs and scrambles.

If BYU consistently creates second-and-4 rather than second-and-8, Colorado State’s turnover opportunities decline. The pass rush becomes less relevant, play action becomes more dangerous and BYU can control the fourth quarter.

That is especially important because the Rams have been losing time of possession despite their offensive production. CSU’s opponents have possessed the ball for an average of 32 minutes per game. Long BYU possessions could turn Colorado State’s explosive offense into an offense watching from the sideline.

WHERE COLORADO STATE WILL STRUGGLE: BYU gets stronger as games progress

Arizona provided perhaps the most important clue about BYU entering this matchup. The Wildcats gained 240 yards before halftime. After halftime, they gained only 87.

Even more striking, Arizona finished the second half with minus-two rushing yards. BYU adjusted, increased its pressure on Fifita and eventually closed the game with consecutive sacks before bleeding away the final minutes with its running game.

Colorado State has already shown that it can overwhelm lesser opponents with bursts of offense, but Southern Utah also showed that CSU can be vulnerable between those bursts. The Thunderbirds cut the lead to 24-21 in the second quarter and finished with 442 total yards despite losing by 34. BYU is considerably better equipped to turn those vulnerable stretches into sustained drives.

The Cougars are averaging 45.5 points and 443 total yards per game through two contests. More importantly, they are converting third downs at an extraordinary rate: BYU went 9-of-11 against Utah Tech and 6-of-11 against Arizona, making the Cougars 15-of-22 — 68.2% — on third down this season.

Colorado State has actually defended third down well, allowing opponents to convert only 27.3%, so this will be another strength-on-strength collision. But BYU has already demonstrated that it can survive inefficient stretches and then become increasingly physical as a game moves along.

THE FORMULA FOR CSU

Colorado State does not need to be better than BYU in every category Saturday. It needs the game to occur in the categories where the Rams have the highest variance. That means explosive passes. Hejny escaping the pocket. Short fields. Turnovers. A loud home crowd after an early touchdown. Colorado State probably wants possessions that end quickly in one direction or the other rather than a game dominated by eight-minute BYU drives.

The Rams have enough offensive firepower to make BYU pay for coverage mistakes. Nine touchdown passes in two games are impossible to completely dismiss, regardless of opponent. But the numbers also reveal a difficult matchup underneath the 2-0 records. BYU protects the football. BYU runs it efficiently. BYU has already shown an ability to make major defensive adjustments after halftime. And CSU just allowed an FCS opponent to produce 442 yards and more than 200 on the ground.

Colorado State’s path is narrow but very real: create at least two BYU turnovers, hit several explosive plays and force the Cougars to chase points. If that happens, Canvas Stadium could become uncomfortable very quickly.

If BYU protects the football and turns the matchup into a rushing and possession game, the statistics suggest Colorado State’s fast 2-0 start could run directly into its first major reality check.