BYU Is No. 9: Too High, Too Low or Just Right?

BYU is officially a top-10 team. Following a 41-23 road win at Colorado State, the Cougars climbed to No. 9 in both the AP Top 25 and Coaches Poll. The AP top 10 now runs Texas, Georgia, Notre Dame, Ole Miss, Indiana, Miami, Ohio State, Alabama, BYU and LSU. (AP News)

Three games into the season, there is enough evidence to make three completely different arguments about BYU. And all three are pretty convincing. THE CASE: BYU IS TOO LOW Forget the logos for a minute and compare production.

BYU has beaten Utah Tech 63-7, Arizona 28-17 and Colorado State 41-23. It is 132-47 combined, or an average victory of 28.3 points. (BYU Athletics) The underlying numbers are even stronger.

BYU has produced 1,445 yards — 481.7 per game — while allowing 813, just 271.0 per game. On a play-by-play basis, the Cougars have averaged approximately 7.9 yards per snap while allowing only 4.4. It is a massive efficiency gap.

Colorado State provided the clearest example. BYU accumulated 559 yards and 9.6 yards per play, while the Rams managed 302 and roughly half that efficiency. LJ Martin ran for 176 yards on 15 carries as BYU built a 38-7 lead before Colorado State scored twice late. (BYU Athletics) Now look directly above BYU.

No. 8 Alabama is also 3-0, beating East Carolina 48-10, Kentucky 45-17 and Florida State 50-36. It is an average margin of 26.7 points. BYU’s: 28.3.

No. 7 Ohio State has destroyed Ball State and Kent State by a combined 112-6 — but the Buckeyes are 2-1 because they lost 24-23 at Texas. Should the best loss in college football automatically outweigh BYU having no loss at all?

Even Indiana and Miami, ranked fifth and sixth, don’t own current ranked victories. They have been more dominant — Indiana’s average margin is 43 points and Miami’s is 40.7 — but their schedules haven’t forced them to prove much more than BYU has. The statistical profile says BYU could reasonably be several spots higher.

THE CASE: BYU IS TOO HIGH Now remove the scoring margins and examine the résumé. Where is BYU’s signature win? There isn’t one.

Utah Tech is an FCS opponent. Arizona is 2-1 but unranked. Colorado State entered Saturday unbeaten, but the Rams aren’t ranked either. BYU has zero wins over the current AP Top 25.

That matters when you look immediately below them. No. 11 Texas Tech is 3-0 and just beat No. 25 Houston 28-26. The Red Raiders haven’t dominated the way BYU has — their victories are 33-10, 35-24 and 28-26 — but they possess something BYU doesn’t: a ranked win. AP has Tech two spots behind BYU; the Coaches Poll has the Red Raiders directly behind them at No. 10. (Texas Tech Red Raiders)

Then there’s No. 10 LSU. The Tigers are 2-1, but their résumé includes a 51-10 demolition of Clemson and their only loss came 32-24 on the road against a suddenly No. 4 Ole Miss team.

Ask the question differently: Would BYU definitely be 3-0 if one of its games had been at No. 4 Ole Miss? We don’t know.

That uncertainty is the argument against No. 9. BYU has looked excellent. It simply hasn’t beaten an excellent team yet.

THE CASE: NO. 9 IS EXACTLY RIGHT This may be the simplest explanation: BYU’s performance says top eight. Its résumé says closer to 10-12. No. 9 splits the difference.

Look above them. Ole Miss deserves separation because it owns wins over Louisville, now No. 16, and LSU, now No. 10. Texas has the Ohio State victory. The top of the poll has more substantial evidence. (AP News)

But BYU also has a stronger argument than much of the group underneath it. Texas Tech has the better individual victory, but BYU has been far more dominant. Tech’s average margin is 12 points. BYU’s is 28.3.

LSU has played the better opponent but already has a loss. USC is 4-0, but the No. 12 Trojans just needed a 42-35 game to escape Rutgers and still lack a ranked victory.

BYU, meanwhile, hasn’t simply survived three games. The Cougars have controlled them. They are averaging nearly 482 yards of offense, holding opponents to 271, have outscored opponents by 85 points, won their Big 12 opener and then went on the road and produced 559 yards against a 2-0 Colorado State team.

It is what a top-10 team is supposed to do. The ranking is also important because of what BYU hasn’t done yet. No signature win.

No elite opponent. No road Big 12 game. That changes after the bye with TCU in Fort Worth, followed by Iowa State and then No. 3 Notre Dame. (BYU Athletics)

So No. 9 fits. Too high? The résumé hasn’t earned it yet.

Too low? The numbers absolutely look like they belong higher. Just right? BYU has played like a top-eight team against a schedule that has produced a top-12 résumé. For now, No. 9 sits almost exactly between those two realities.